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What Win Rate Do I Need?
Break-Even Win Rate And Expectancy Calculator
Enter your average win, average loss, costs and win rate. See the win rate you need to break even and what your numbers make or lose per 100 trades.
New to this? Read The Short Guide First →
2 Your Result
To break even, you need to win
3 What Next
Small steps add up. Here’s the next one.
What This Estimate Assumes
Simple maths on the averages you enter. Costs per trade come off every win and add to every loss. Break-even win rate = net loss ÷ (net win + net loss). Expectancy per trade = win rate × net win − loss rate × net loss. Past averages do not predict future trades, and results can vary widely around the average. Ignores tax, slippage, position sizes and losing streaks. Not a trading strategy. Checked 4 October 2026. General information and estimates only, not financial, tax or legal advice.
Before You Use This Number
What Is Expectancy?
It is the average amount a trade makes or loses over many trades, from your win rate, average win and average loss. A negative number means the averages lose money over time.
Does A Positive Result Mean I Should Trade More?
No. Averages from past trades may not hold, and losing streaks happen even with a positive expectancy. This is arithmetic, not a strategy.